HKEX: 2096 - Simcere Pharmaceutical Group Limited

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — 关键利率
Excess Key Rate — 期望超出关键利率
EPS = 0.2732
CAGR EPS = -8.65%
Key Rate = 0.0458
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 0.2732 * (1 + -8.65%) / (0.0458 * 2) = 2.72

Price = (DPS * (1 + g)) / (Cost Of Equity - g)
Price - 价格公道
DPS — 当期股息
g — 预期增长率
DPS = 0.1757
g = 0.0491
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 0.3
β = 1.16
Risk Premium = 18.88
Country Premium = 0.91
Cost Of Equity = 0.3 + 1.16 * 18.88 + 0.91 = 0.2318
Price = (0.1757 * (1 + 0.0491)) / (0.2318 - 0.0491) = 1.01

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 1.04
Ebitda Yield = -0.0048
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 0.0346
Debt = 1.51
Market Cap = 17.14
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 17.14 / (17.14 + 1.51) = 0.919
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.919 = 0.081
Tax = 0.25
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 0.3
β = 1.16
Risk Premium = 18.88
Country Premium = 0.91
Cost Of Equity = 0.3 + 1.16 * 18.88 + 0.91 = 0.2318
WACC = (0.0346 / 1.51) * (100% - 0.919) * (1 - 0.25) + 0.2318 + 0.919 = 1.91
Terminal Value = Discount (1.04 * (1 + -0.0048) / (1.91 - -0.0048)) = 39.38
Company Value = ∑ (1.04 / (1 + 1.91) ^ 5) = 4.96
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (39.38 + 4.96) / 2616720000 = 16.94

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 0.2798
FCF Yield = -1.8
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 0.0346
Debt = 1.51
Market Cap = 17.14
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 17.14 / (17.14 + 1.51) = 0.919
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.919 = 0.081
Tax = 0.25
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 0.3
β = 1.16
Risk Premium = 18.88
Country Premium = 0.91
Cost Of Equity = 0.3 + 1.16 * 18.88 + 0.91 = 0.2318
WACC = (0.0346 / 1.51) * (100% - 0.919) * (1 - 0.25) + 0.2318 + 0.919 = 1.91
Terminal Value = Discount (0.2798 * (1 + -1.8) / (1.91 - -1.8)) = -0.1123
Company Value = ∑ (0.2798 / (1 + 1.91) ^ 5) = 0.478
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-0.1123 + 0.478) / 2616720000 = 0.1398