HKEX: 2689 - Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — 关键利率
Excess Key Rate — 期望超出关键利率
EPS = 0.16
CAGR EPS = 8.64%
Key Rate = 0.0458
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 0.16 * (1 + 8.64%) / (0.0458 * 2) = 1.9

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 4.59
Ebitda Yield = -0.0851
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 1.5
Debt = 67.18
Market Cap = 21.49
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 21.49 / (21.49 + 67.18) = 0.2424
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.2424 = 0.7576
Tax = 0.25
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 0.2
β = 0.9421
Risk Premium = 18.88
Country Premium = 0.91
Cost Of Equity = 0.2 + 0.9421 * 18.88 + 0.91 = 0.189
WACC = (1.5 / 67.18) * (100% - 0.2424) * (1 - 0.25) + 0.189 + 0.2424 = 1.72
Terminal Value = Discount (4.59 * (1 + -0.0851) / (1.72 - -0.0851)) = 37.7
Company Value = ∑ (4.59 / (1 + 1.72) ^ 5) = 26.33
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (37.7 + 26.33) / 4692220000 = 13.64

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 4.87
FCF Yield = -1.81
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 1.5
Debt = 67.18
Market Cap = 21.49
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 21.49 / (21.49 + 67.18) = 0.2424
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.2424 = 0.7576
Tax = 0.25
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 0.2
β = 0.9421
Risk Premium = 18.88
Country Premium = 0.91
Cost Of Equity = 0.2 + 0.9421 * 18.88 + 0.91 = 0.189
WACC = (1.5 / 67.18) * (100% - 0.2424) * (1 - 0.25) + 0.189 + 0.2424 = 1.72
Terminal Value = Discount (4.87 * (1 + -1.81) / (1.72 - -1.81)) = -1.99
Company Value = ∑ (4.87 / (1 + 1.72) ^ 5) = 8.04
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-1.99 + 8.04) / 4692220000 = 1.29