HKEX: 9858 - China Youran Dairy Group Limited

Price = Avg Price + (Avg Price * CAGR EPS% / 100)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — 关键利率
Excess Key Rate — 期望超出关键利率
EPS = -0.2509
CAGR EPS = 8.66%
Key Rate = 0.0433
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 1.81 + (1.81 * 8.66% / 100) = 1.96

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 4.85
Ebitda Yield = 0.1629
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 0.9817
Debt = 23.32
Market Cap = 5.88
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 5.88 / (5.88 + 23.32) = 0.2014
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.2014 = 0.7986
Tax = 0.25
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = -0.7
β = 3.45
Risk Premium = 18.88
Country Premium = 0.91
Cost Of Equity = -0.7 + 3.45 * 18.88 + 0.91 = 0.6526
WACC = (0.9817 / 23.32) * (100% - 0.2014) * (1 - 0.25) + 0.6526 + 0.2014 = 3.28
Terminal Value = Discount (4.85 * (1 + 0.1629) / (3.28 - 0.1629)) = 36.89
Company Value = ∑ (4.85 / (1 + 3.28) ^ 5) = 16.5
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (36.89 + 16.5) / 3795400000 = 14.07

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = -12.22
FCF Yield = 0.2632
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 0.9817
Debt = 23.32
Market Cap = 5.88
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 5.88 / (5.88 + 23.32) = 0.2014
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.2014 = 0.7986
Tax = 0.25
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = -0.7
β = 3.45
Risk Premium = 18.88
Country Premium = 0.91
Cost Of Equity = -0.7 + 3.45 * 18.88 + 0.91 = 0.6526
WACC = (0.9817 / 23.32) * (100% - 0.2014) * (1 - 0.25) + 0.6526 + 0.2014 = 3.28
Terminal Value = Discount (-12.22 * (1 + 0.2632) / (3.28 - 0.2632)) = -57.02
Company Value = ∑ (-12.22 / (1 + 3.28) ^ 5) = -36.19
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-57.02 + -36.19) / 3795400000 = -24.56