Банк Санкт-Петербург (BSPB) 📈: справедливая цена акции по DCF, DDM и прогнозы аналитиков по акции Банк Санкт-Петербург

现价

409.23 ₽

平均价格

187.09 ₽ -54.28%

分析师平均价格

445.65 ₽ +8.9%

价格基于每股收益

362.75 ₽ -11.36%

2/10

分析师平均价格

价格公道 = 445.65 ₽
现价 = 409.23 ₽ (不同之处 = +8.9%)

主意	价格预测	变化	结束日期	分析师
Банк Санкт-Петербург: культурный лонг	455 ₽	+45.77 ₽ (11.18%)	10.05.2025	Финам - спекулятивный портфель
Банк Санкт-Петербург: дисконт к Сберу, и к себе самому	500 ₽	+90.77 ₽ (22.18%)	13.01.2026	Альфа Банк
Банк Санкт-Петербург: билеты в Эрмитаж с дивидендов	450 ₽	+40.77 ₽ (9.96%)	06.01.2026	БКС
Банк Санкт-Петербург: надежный, как Петропавловская крепость	361.52 ₽	-47.71 ₽ (-11.66%)	28.11.2025	АКБФ
Белые ночи в Санкт-Петербурге	400 ₽	-9.23 ₽ (-2.26%)	03.11.2025	ЦИФРА Брокер
Банк Санкт-Петербург: движение на север	493 ₽	+83.77 ₽ (20.47%)	23.05.2025	SberCIB
Банк Санкт-Петербург: дивиденд под процент	460 ₽	+50.77 ₽ (12.41%)	22.05.2025	Газпромбанк Инвестиции

价格基于每股收益

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
Key Rate = 关键利率
价格公道 = 362.75 ₽
现价 = 409.23 ₽ (不同之处 = -11.36%)

数据

Dividend Discount Model

Price = (DPS * (1 + g)) / (Cost Of Equity - g)
Price - 价格公道
DPS — 当期股息
g — 预期增长率
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
价格公道 = 91.05 ₽ (私人。 = 0.7479)
现价 = 409.23 ₽ (不同之处 = -77.75%)
现价私人。 = 82.9 ₽ (不同之处 = -99.1%)

数据

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 EBITDA)

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Future Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
WACC - 加权平均资本成本（考虑国家风险、通货膨胀、税收等）
价格公道 = 36 ₽
现价 = 409.23 ₽ (不同之处 = -91.2%)

数据

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 1487.27
Ebitda Yield = 0.5826
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 83.63
Debt = 4.65
Market Cap = 170.83
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 170.83 / (170.83 + 4.65) = 0.9735
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.9735 = 0.0265
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 10.06
β = 0.9867
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 10.06 + 0.9867 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2883
WACC = (83.63 / 4.65) * (100% - 0.9735) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2883 + 0.9735 = 1424.78
Terminal Value = Discount (1487.27 * (1 + 0.5826) / (1424.78 - 0.5826)) = 0.000209
Company Value = ∑ (1487.27 / (1 + 1424.78) ^ 5) = 17.35
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (0.000209 + 17.35) / 482000000 = 36

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 FCF)

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield) ^ 5
Company Value = ∑ (FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
WACC - 加权平均资本成本（考虑国家风险、通货膨胀、税收等）
价格公道 = -6.16 ₽
现价 = 409.23 ₽ (不同之处 = -101.51%)

数据

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = -2492.82
FCF Yield = 1.87
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 83.63
Debt = 4.65
Market Cap = 170.83
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 170.83 / (170.83 + 4.65) = 0.9735
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.9735 = 0.0265
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 10.06
β = 0.9867
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 10.06 + 0.9867 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2883
WACC = (83.63 / 4.65) * (100% - 0.9735) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2883 + 0.9735 = 1424.78
Terminal Value = Discount (-2492.82 * (1 + 1.87) / (1424.78 - 1.87)) = -0.000701
Company Value = ∑ (-2492.82 / (1 + 1424.78) ^ 5) = -2.97
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-0.000701 + -2.97) / 482000000 = -6.16

Investing Port

MOEX: BSPB - Банк Санкт-Петербург

分析师平均价格

价格基于每股收益

Dividend Discount Model

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 EBITDA)

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 FCF)

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