MOEX: PHOR - ФосАгро

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — 关键利率
Excess Key Rate — 期望超出关键利率
EPS = 664.74
CAGR EPS = 11.67%
Key Rate = 0.21
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 664.74 * (1 + 11.67%) / (0.21 * 2) = 1767.41

Price = (DPS * (1 + g)) / (Cost Of Equity - g)
Price - 价格公道
DPS — 当期股息
g — 预期增长率
DPS = 717
g = 0.4613
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 8.53
β = 0.6724
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 8.53 + 0.6724 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2544
Price = (717 * (1 + 0.4613)) / (0.2544 - 0.4613) = 5064.92

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 240.95
Ebitda Yield = 0.0927
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 6.41
Debt = 250.55
Market Cap = 784.77
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 784.77 / (784.77 + 250.55) = 0.758
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.758 = 0.242
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 8.53
β = 0.6724
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 8.53 + 0.6724 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2544
WACC = (6.41 / 250.55) * (100% - 0.758) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2544 + 0.758 = 2.22
Terminal Value = Discount (240.95 * (1 + 0.0927) / (2.22 - 0.0927)) = 3346.77
Company Value = ∑ (240.95 / (1 + 2.22) ^ 5) = 948.74
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (3346.77 + 948.74) / 130000000 = 33042.39

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 136.95
FCF Yield = 0.1498
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 6.41
Debt = 250.55
Market Cap = 784.77
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 784.77 / (784.77 + 250.55) = 0.758
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.758 = 0.242
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 8.53
β = 0.6724
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 8.53 + 0.6724 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2544
WACC = (6.41 / 250.55) * (100% - 0.758) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2544 + 0.758 = 2.22
Terminal Value = Discount (136.95 * (1 + 0.1498) / (2.22 - 0.1498)) = 1106.16
Company Value = ∑ (136.95 / (1 + 2.22) ^ 5) = 491.62
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (1106.16 + 491.62) / 130000000 = 12290.65