SSE: 601390 - China Railway Group Limited

Price = Avg Price + (Avg Price * CAGR EPS% / 100)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — 关键利率
Excess Key Rate — 期望超出关键利率
EPS = 1.35
CAGR EPS = 7.32%
Key Rate = 0.0433
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 5.73 + (5.73 * 7.32% / 100) = 6.15

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 57.8
Ebitda Yield = 0.0175
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 5.19
Debt = 416.37
Market Cap = 173.66
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 173.66 / (173.66 + 416.37) = 0.2943
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.2943 = 0.7057
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 2.89
β = 2.48
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.89 + 2.48 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.1762
WACC = (5.19 / 416.37) * (100% - 0.2943) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.1762 + 0.2943 = 1.03
Terminal Value = Discount (57.8 * (1 + 0.0175) / (1.03 - 0.0175)) = 7762.14
Company Value = ∑ (57.8 / (1 + 1.03) ^ 5) = 270.67
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (7762.14 + 270.67) / 24752200000 = 324.53

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 28.88
FCF Yield = -2.08
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 5.19
Debt = 416.37
Market Cap = 173.66
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 173.66 / (173.66 + 416.37) = 0.2943
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.2943 = 0.7057
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 2.89
β = 2.48
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.89 + 2.48 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.1762
WACC = (5.19 / 416.37) * (100% - 0.2943) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.1762 + 0.2943 = 1.03
Terminal Value = Discount (28.88 * (1 + -2.08) / (1.03 - -2.08)) = -14.15
Company Value = ∑ (28.88 / (1 + 1.03) ^ 5) = 24.5
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-14.15 + 24.5) / 24752200000 = 0.4183