TSE: 6178 - Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd.

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — 关键利率
Excess Key Rate — 期望超出关键利率
EPS = 80.26
CAGR EPS = -7.67%
Key Rate = 0.0433
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 80.26 * (1 + -7.67%) / (0.0433 * 2) = 855.67

Price = (DPS * (1 + g)) / (Cost Of Equity - g)
Price - 价格公道
DPS — 当期股息
g — 预期增长率
DPS = 50
g = -0.0092
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 2.82
β = -1.14
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.82 + -1.14 * 5.94 + 0 = -0.0397
Price = (50 * (1 + -0.0092)) / (-0.0397 - -0.0092) = 1626.44

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 811.3
Ebitda Yield = -0.0148
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 19.44
Debt = 32935.83
Market Cap = 3740
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 3740 / (3740 + 32935.83) = 0.102
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.102 = 0.898
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 2.82
β = -1.14
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.82 + -1.14 * 5.94 + 0 = -0.0397
WACC = (19.44 / 32935.83) * (100% - 0.102) * (1 - 0.21) + -0.0397 + 0.102 = 0.0425
Terminal Value = Discount (811.3 * (1 + -0.0148) / (0.0425 - -0.0148)) = 52489.02
Company Value = ∑ (811.3 / (1 + 0.0425) ^ 5) = 4174.67
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (52489.02 + 4174.67) / 3347680000 = 16926.26

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 12935.74
FCF Yield = -2.37
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 19.44
Debt = 32935.83
Market Cap = 3740
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 3740 / (3740 + 32935.83) = 0.102
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.102 = 0.898
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 2.82
β = -1.14
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.82 + -1.14 * 5.94 + 0 = -0.0397
WACC = (19.44 / 32935.83) * (100% - 0.102) * (1 - 0.21) + -0.0397 + 0.102 = 0.0425
Terminal Value = Discount (12935.74 * (1 + -2.37) / (0.0425 - -2.37)) = -7460.71
Company Value = ∑ (12935.74 / (1 + 0.0425) ^ 5) = 9009.13
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-7460.71 + 9009.13) / 3347680000 = 462.53