TSE: 6861 - Keyence Corporation

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — 关键利率
Excess Key Rate — 期望超出关键利率
EPS = 1524.13
CAGR EPS = 13.28%
Key Rate = 0.0458
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 1524.13 * (1 + 13.28%) / (0.0458 * 2) = 18849.41

Price = (DPS * (1 + g)) / (Cost Of Equity - g)
Price - 价格公道
DPS — 当期股息
g — 预期增长率
DPS = 300
g = 0.1723
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 2.6
β = -0.2786
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.6 + -0.2786 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.0094
Price = (300 * (1 + 0.1723)) / (0.0094 - 0.1723) = 2159.63

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 811.66
Ebitda Yield = 0.0979
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 13.91
Debt = 0
Market Cap = 14520
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 14520 / (14520 + 0) = 0
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0 = 1
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 2.6
β = -0.2786
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.6 + -0.2786 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.0094
WACC = (13.91 / 0) * (100% - 0) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.0094 + 0 = 0
Terminal Value = Discount (811.66 * (1 + 0.0979) / (0 - 0.0979)) = 9101.09
Company Value = ∑ (811.66 / (1 + 0) ^ 5) = 3396.18
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (9101.09 + 3396.18) / 242530000 = 51528.77

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 637.78
FCF Yield = 0.1118
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 13.91
Debt = 0
Market Cap = 14520
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 14520 / (14520 + 0) = 0
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0 = 1
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 2.6
β = -0.2786
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.6 + -0.2786 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.0094
WACC = (13.91 / 0) * (100% - 0) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.0094 + 0 = 0
Terminal Value = Discount (637.78 * (1 + 0.1118) / (0 - 0.1118)) = 6342.05
Company Value = ∑ (637.78 / (1 + 0) ^ 5) = 2608.84
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (6342.05 + 2608.84) / 242530000 = 36906.3