HKEX: 9961 - Trip.com Group Limited

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — 关键利率
Excess Key Rate — 期望超出关键利率
EPS = 15.4
CAGR EPS = 3.14%
Key Rate = 0.0433
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 15.4 * (1 + 3.14%) / (0.0433 * 2) = 183.4

Price = (DPS * (1 + g)) / (Cost Of Equity - g)
Price - 价格公道
DPS — 当期股息
g — 预期增长率
DPS = 2.33
g = 0.7137
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = -0.7
β = -0.2764
Risk Premium = 18.88
Country Premium = 0.91
Cost Of Equity = -0.7 + -0.2764 * 18.88 + 0.91 = -0.0501
Price = (2.33 * (1 + 0.7137)) / (-0.0501 - 0.7137) = 5.23

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 8.22
Ebitda Yield = -0.0345
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 2.07
Debt = 53.18
Market Cap = 206.77
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 206.77 / (206.77 + 53.18) = 0.7954
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.7954 = 0.2046
Tax = 0.25
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = -0.7
β = -0.2764
Risk Premium = 18.88
Country Premium = 0.91
Cost Of Equity = -0.7 + -0.2764 * 18.88 + 0.91 = -0.0501
WACC = (2.07 / 53.18) * (100% - 0.7954) * (1 - 0.25) + -0.0501 + 0.7954 = 2.85
Terminal Value = Discount (8.22 * (1 + -0.0345) / (2.85 - -0.0345)) = 109.52
Company Value = ∑ (8.22 / (1 + 2.85) ^ 5) = 40.7
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (109.52 + 40.7) / 644090000 = 233.23

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 56.73
FCF Yield = 0.2153
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 2.07
Debt = 53.18
Market Cap = 206.77
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 206.77 / (206.77 + 53.18) = 0.7954
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.7954 = 0.2046
Tax = 0.25
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = -0.7
β = -0.2764
Risk Premium = 18.88
Country Premium = 0.91
Cost Of Equity = -0.7 + -0.2764 * 18.88 + 0.91 = -0.0501
WACC = (2.07 / 53.18) * (100% - 0.7954) * (1 - 0.25) + -0.0501 + 0.7954 = 2.85
Terminal Value = Discount (56.73 * (1 + 0.2153) / (2.85 - 0.2153)) = 320.69
Company Value = ∑ (56.73 / (1 + 2.85) ^ 5) = 181.46
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (320.69 + 181.46) / 644090000 = 779.62