MOEX: CHMF - Северсталь

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — 关键利率
Excess Key Rate — 期望超出关键利率
EPS = 231.34
CAGR EPS = 14.92%
Key Rate = 0.21
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 231.34 * (1 + 14.92%) / (0.21 * 2) = 632.99

Price = (DPS * (1 + g)) / (Cost Of Equity - g)
Price - 价格公道
DPS — 当期股息
g — 预期增长率
DPS = 309.93
g = 0.3292
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 9.51
β = 0.6345
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.51 + 0.6345 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.262
Price = (309.93 * (1 + 0.3292)) / (0.262 - 0.3292) = 6131.64

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 279.13
Ebitda Yield = 0.0325
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 16.64
Debt = 164.89
Market Cap = 1307.34
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 1307.34 / (1307.34 + 164.89) = 0.888
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.888 = 0.112
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 9.51
β = 0.6345
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.51 + 0.6345 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.262
WACC = (16.64 / 164.89) * (100% - 0.888) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.262 + 0.888 = 8.23
Terminal Value = Discount (279.13 * (1 + 0.0325) / (8.23 - 0.0325)) = 3890.93
Company Value = ∑ (279.13 / (1 + 8.23) ^ 5) = 1034.85
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (3890.93 + 1034.85) / 838000000 = 5878.01

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 114.54
FCF Yield = 0.0342
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 16.64
Debt = 164.89
Market Cap = 1307.34
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 1307.34 / (1307.34 + 164.89) = 0.888
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.888 = 0.112
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 9.51
β = 0.6345
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.51 + 0.6345 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.262
WACC = (16.64 / 164.89) * (100% - 0.888) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.262 + 0.888 = 8.23
Terminal Value = Discount (114.54 * (1 + 0.0342) / (8.23 - 0.0342)) = 1657.21
Company Value = ∑ (114.54 / (1 + 8.23) ^ 5) = 423.14
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (1657.21 + 423.14) / 838000000 = 2482.52