MOEX: HMSG - ГМС Группа

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — 关键利率
Excess Key Rate — 期望超出关键利率
EPS = 52.92
CAGR EPS = -36.94%
Key Rate = 0.21
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 52.92 * (1 + -36.94%) / (0.21 * 2) = 79.45

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 6.58
Ebitda Yield = 0.005
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 0
Debt = 22.67
Market Cap = 7.11
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 7.11 / (7.11 + 22.67) = 0.2388
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.2388 = 0.7612
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 8.53
β = 0
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 8.53 + 0 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2147
WACC = (0 / 22.67) * (100% - 0.2388) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2147 + 0.2388 = 0.0513
Terminal Value = Discount (6.58 * (1 + 0.005) / (0.0513 - 0.005)) = 1464.35
Company Value = ∑ (6.58 / (1 + 0.0513) ^ 5) = 32.51
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (1464.35 + 32.51) / 23000000 = 65080.8

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 0.02
FCF Yield = -1.45
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 0
Debt = 22.67
Market Cap = 7.11
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 7.11 / (7.11 + 22.67) = 0.2388
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.2388 = 0.7612
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 8.53
β = 0
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 8.53 + 0 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2147
WACC = (0 / 22.67) * (100% - 0.2388) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2147 + 0.2388 = 0.0513
Terminal Value = Discount (0.02 * (1 + -1.45) / (0.0513 - -1.45)) = -0.0062
Company Value = ∑ (0.02 / (1 + 0.0513) ^ 5) = 0.3435
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-0.0062 + 0.3435) / 23000000 = 14.67