MOEX: LKOH - Лукойл

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — 关键利率
Excess Key Rate — 期望超出关键利率
EPS = 934.73
CAGR EPS = 10.97%
Key Rate = 0.21
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 934.73 * (1 + 10.97%) / (0.21 * 2) = 2469.69

Price = (DPS * (1 + g)) / (Cost Of Equity - g)
Price - 价格公道
DPS — 当期股息
g — 预期增长率
DPS = 1012
g = 0.3341
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 9.51
β = 0.3882
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.51 + 0.3882 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2474
Price = (1012 * (1 + 0.3341)) / (0.2474 - 0.3341) = 15583.44

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 2664.75
Ebitda Yield = 0.0688
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 39.15
Debt = 396
Market Cap = 4781.08
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 4781.08 / (4781.08 + 396) = 0.9235
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.9235 = 0.0765
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 9.51
β = 0.3882
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.51 + 0.3882 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2474
WACC = (39.15 / 396) * (100% - 0.9235) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2474 + 0.9235 = 8.06
Terminal Value = Discount (2664.75 * (1 + 0.0688) / (8.06 - 0.0688)) = 163546.02
Company Value = ∑ (2664.75 / (1 + 8.06) ^ 5) = 9243.43
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (163546.02 + 9243.43) / 693000000 = 249335.42

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 4014.95
FCF Yield = 0.1709
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 39.15
Debt = 396
Market Cap = 4781.08
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 4781.08 / (4781.08 + 396) = 0.9235
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.9235 = 0.0765
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 9.51
β = 0.3882
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.51 + 0.3882 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2474
WACC = (39.15 / 396) * (100% - 0.9235) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2474 + 0.9235 = 8.06
Terminal Value = Discount (4014.95 * (1 + 0.1709) / (8.06 - 0.1709)) = 35345.18
Company Value = ∑ (4014.95 / (1 + 8.06) ^ 5) = 11678.04
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (35345.18 + 11678.04) / 693000000 = 67854.58