MOEX : MDMG

MDMG

MOEX : MDMG

Мать и Дитя (MD)

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — 关键利率
Excess Key Rate — 期望超出关键利率
EPS = 104.13
CAGR EPS = 24.29%
Key Rate = 0.21
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 104.13 * (1 + 24.29%) / (0.21 * 2) = 308.16

Price = (DPS * (1 + g)) / (Cost Of Equity - g)
Price - 价格公道
DPS — 当期股息
g — 预期增长率
DPS = 183
g = 0.189
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 8.88
β = 0
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 8.88 + 0 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2182
Price = (183 * (1 + 0.189)) / (0.2182 - 0.189) = 7445.85

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 15.71
Ebitda Yield = 0.1125
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 0
Debt = 0.876
Market Cap = 63.38
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 63.38 / (63.38 + 0.876) = 0.9864
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.9864 = 0.0136
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 8.88
β = 0
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 8.88 + 0 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2182
WACC = (0 / 0.876) * (100% - 0.9864) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2182 + 0.9864 = 0.2152
Terminal Value = Discount (15.71 * (1 + 0.1125) / (0.2152 - 0.1125)) = 156.67
Company Value = ∑ (15.71 / (1 + 0.2152) ^ 5) = 63.75
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (156.67 + 63.75) / 75000000 = 2938.88

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 27.48
FCF Yield = 0.3557
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 0
Debt = 0.876
Market Cap = 63.38
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 63.38 / (63.38 + 0.876) = 0.9864
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.9864 = 0.0136
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 8.88
β = 0
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 8.88 + 0 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2182
WACC = (0 / 0.876) * (100% - 0.9864) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2182 + 0.9864 = 0.2152
Terminal Value = Discount (27.48 * (1 + 0.3557) / (0.2152 - 0.3557)) = 104.24
Company Value = ∑ (27.48 / (1 + 0.2152) ^ 5) = 81.23
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (104.24 + 81.23) / 75000000 = 2473.01