MOEX: PLZL - Полюс золото

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — 关键利率
Excess Key Rate — 期望超出关键利率
EPS = 1320.02
CAGR EPS = 146.75%
Key Rate = 0.21
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 1320.02 * (1 + 146.75%) / (0.21 * 2) = 7755.29

Price = (DPS * (1 + g)) / (Cost Of Equity - g)
Price - 价格公道
DPS — 当期股息
g — 预期增长率
DPS = 1301.75
g = 0.1408
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 9.51
β = 2.31
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.51 + 2.31 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.3608
Price = (1301.75 * (1 + 0.1408)) / (0.3608 - 0.1408) = 6752.32

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 387.66
Ebitda Yield = 0.0781
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 33.1
Debt = 771.98
Market Cap = 1543.63
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 1543.63 / (1543.63 + 771.98) = 0.6666
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.6666 = 0.3334
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 9.51
β = 2.31
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.51 + 2.31 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.3608
WACC = (33.1 / 771.98) * (100% - 0.6666) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.3608 + 0.6666 = 3.65
Terminal Value = Discount (387.66 * (1 + 0.0781) / (3.65 - 0.0781)) = 8402.15
Company Value = ∑ (387.66 / (1 + 3.65) ^ 5) = 1500.12
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (8402.15 + 1500.12) / 134000000 = 73897.52

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 8639.46
FCF Yield = 1.24
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 33.1
Debt = 771.98
Market Cap = 1543.63
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 1543.63 / (1543.63 + 771.98) = 0.6666
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.6666 = 0.3334
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 9.51
β = 2.31
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.51 + 2.31 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.3608
WACC = (33.1 / 771.98) * (100% - 0.6666) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.3608 + 0.6666 = 3.65
Terminal Value = Discount (8639.46 * (1 + 1.24) / (3.65 - 1.24)) = 13430.24
Company Value = ∑ (8639.46 / (1 + 3.65) ^ 5) = 13146.89
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (13430.24 + 13146.89) / 134000000 = 198336.74