MOEX: PLZL - Полюс золото

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — 关键利率
Excess Key Rate — 期望超出关键利率
EPS = 1320.02
CAGR EPS = 37.68%
Key Rate = 0.21
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 1320.02 * (1 + 37.68%) / (0.21 * 2) = 4327.16

Price = (DPS * (1 + g)) / (Cost Of Equity - g)
Price - 价格公道
DPS — 当期股息
g — 预期增长率
DPS = 2031.75
g = 0.399
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 10.06
β = 1.33
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 10.06 + 1.33 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.3086
Price = (2031.75 * (1 + 0.399)) / (0.3086 - 0.399) = 31448.3

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 1238.1
Ebitda Yield = 0.1811
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 33.1
Debt = 771.98
Market Cap = 1543.63
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 1543.63 / (1543.63 + 771.98) = 0.6666
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.6666 = 0.3334
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 10.06
β = 1.33
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 10.06 + 1.33 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.3086
WACC = (33.1 / 771.98) * (100% - 0.6666) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.3086 + 0.6666 = 3.61
Terminal Value = Discount (1238.1 * (1 + 0.1811) / (3.61 - 0.1811)) = 8447.47
Company Value = ∑ (1238.1 / (1 + 3.61) ^ 5) = 4058.27
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (8447.47 + 4058.27) / 134000000 = 93326.4

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 47.21
FCF Yield = -0.129
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 33.1
Debt = 771.98
Market Cap = 1543.63
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 1543.63 / (1543.63 + 771.98) = 0.6666
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.6666 = 0.3334
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 10.06
β = 1.33
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 10.06 + 1.33 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.3086
WACC = (33.1 / 771.98) * (100% - 0.6666) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.3086 + 0.6666 = 3.61
Terminal Value = Discount (47.21 * (1 + -0.129) / (3.61 - -0.129)) = 208.46
Company Value = ∑ (47.21 / (1 + 3.61) ^ 5) = 288.26
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (208.46 + 288.26) / 134000000 = 3706.88