MOEX: RUAL - Русал (Rusal)

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — 关键利率
Excess Key Rate — 期望超出关键利率
EPS = 1.66
CAGR EPS = -14.98%
Key Rate = 0.21
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 1.66 * (1 + -14.98%) / (0.21 * 2) = 3.35

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 26.67
Ebitda Yield = -0.1795
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 30.33
Debt = 701.77
Market Cap = 657.1
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 657.1 / (657.1 + 701.77) = 0.4836
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.4836 = 0.5164
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 9.92
β = 0.9014
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.92 + 0.9014 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2819
WACC = (30.33 / 701.77) * (100% - 0.4836) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2819 + 0.4836 = 3.58
Terminal Value = Discount (26.67 * (1 + -0.1795) / (3.58 - -0.1795)) = 85.26
Company Value = ∑ (26.67 / (1 + 3.58) ^ 5) = 188.05
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (85.26 + 188.05) / 15193000000 = 17.99

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 55.43
FCF Yield = -0.029
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 30.33
Debt = 701.77
Market Cap = 657.1
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 657.1 / (657.1 + 701.77) = 0.4836
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.4836 = 0.5164
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 9.92
β = 0.9014
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.92 + 0.9014 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2819
WACC = (30.33 / 701.77) * (100% - 0.4836) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2819 + 0.4836 = 3.58
Terminal Value = Discount (55.43 * (1 + -0.029) / (3.58 - -0.029)) = 696.65
Company Value = ∑ (55.43 / (1 + 3.58) ^ 5) = 265.64
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (696.65 + 265.64) / 15193000000 = 63.34