MOEX: SFIN - САФМАР

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — 关键利率
Excess Key Rate — 期望超出关键利率
EPS = 410.66
CAGR EPS = 16.07%
Key Rate = 0.21
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 410.66 * (1 + 16.07%) / (0.21 * 2) = 1134.87

Price = (DPS * (1 + g)) / (Cost Of Equity - g)
Price - 价格公道
DPS — 当期股息
g — 预期增长率
DPS = 248.2
g = 3.17
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 10.06
β = 0.4113
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 10.06 + 0.4113 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2543
Price = (248.2 * (1 + 3.17)) / (0.2543 - 3.17) = 355.15

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 0.000477
Ebitda Yield = -1.26
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 15.11
Debt = 118.05
Market Cap = 135.39
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 135.39 / (135.39 + 118.05) = 0.5342
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.5342 = 0.4658
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 10.06
β = 0.4113
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 10.06 + 0.4113 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2543
WACC = (15.11 / 118.05) * (100% - 0.5342) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2543 + 0.5342 = 10.32
Terminal Value = Discount (0.000477 * (1 + -1.26) / (10.32 - -1.26)) = -5.6E-5
Company Value = ∑ (0.000477 / (1 + 10.32) ^ 5) = 0.0757
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-5.6E-5 + 0.0757) / 50000000 = 1.51

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = -694.64
FCF Yield = 0.6642
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 15.11
Debt = 118.05
Market Cap = 135.39
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 135.39 / (135.39 + 118.05) = 0.5342
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.5342 = 0.4658
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 10.06
β = 0.4113
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 10.06 + 0.4113 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2543
WACC = (15.11 / 118.05) * (100% - 0.5342) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2543 + 0.5342 = 10.32
Terminal Value = Discount (-694.64 * (1 + 0.6642) / (10.32 - 0.6642)) = -1261.09
Company Value = ∑ (-694.64 / (1 + 10.32) ^ 5) = -1099.63
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-1261.09 + -1099.63) / 50000000 = -47214.39