iRobot Corporation (IRBT) 📈: справедливая цена акции по DCF, DDM и прогнозы аналитиков по акции iRobot Corporation

现价

3.33 $

平均价格

3.78 $ +13.65%

价格基于每股收益

6.52 $ +95.78%

根据 DCF 模型计算的价格（EBITDA）

3.27 $ -1.67%

根据 DCF 模型 (FCF) 的价格

1.56 $ -53.16%

3.33/10

价格基于每股收益

Price = Price * (100 - CAGR EPS * Excess Key Rate) / 100
Key Rate = 关键利率
价格公道 = 6.52 $
现价 = 3.33 $ (不同之处 = +95.78%)

数据

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 EBITDA)

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Future Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
WACC - 加权平均资本成本（考虑国家风险、通货膨胀、税收等）
价格公道 = 3.27 $
现价 = 3.33 $ (不同之处 = -1.67%)

数据

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 0.0407
Ebitda Yield = -1.71
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 0.0247
Debt = 0.2067
Market Cap = 1.02
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 1.02 / (1.02 + 0.2067) = 0.8315
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.8315 = 0.1685
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 2.82
β = 5.19
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.82 + 5.19 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.3367
WACC = (0.0247 / 0.2067) * (100% - 0.8315) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.3367 + 0.8315 = 9.64
Terminal Value = Discount (0.0407 * (1 + -1.71) / (9.64 - -1.71)) = -0.0101
Company Value = ∑ (0.0407 / (1 + 9.64) ^ 5) = 0.1007
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-0.0101 + 0.1007) / 27680000 = 3.27

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 FCF)

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield) ^ 5
Company Value = ∑ (FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
WACC - 加权平均资本成本（考虑国家风险、通货膨胀、税收等）
价格公道 = 1.56 $
现价 = 3.33 $ (不同之处 = -53.16%)

数据

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 0.0122
FCF Yield = -1.64
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 0.0247
Debt = 0.2067
Market Cap = 1.02
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 1.02 / (1.02 + 0.2067) = 0.8315
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.8315 = 0.1685
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 2.82
β = 5.19
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.82 + 5.19 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.3367
WACC = (0.0247 / 0.2067) * (100% - 0.8315) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.3367 + 0.8315 = 9.64
Terminal Value = Discount (0.0122 * (1 + -1.64) / (9.64 - -1.64)) = -0.0028
Company Value = ∑ (0.0122 / (1 + 9.64) ^ 5) = 0.046
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-0.0028 + 0.046) / 27680000 = 1.56

Investing Port

NASDAQ: IRBT - iRobot Corporation

价格基于每股收益

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 EBITDA)

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 FCF)

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