Сбербанк (SBER) 📈: справедливая цена акции по DCF, DDM и прогнозы аналитиков по акции Сбербанк

现价

275.14 ₽

平均价格

171.3 ₽ -37.74%

分析师平均价格

363.41 ₽ +32.08%

价格基于每股收益

188.39 ₽ -31.53%

价格根据DDM型号

110.69 ₽ -59.77%

根据 DCF 模型 (FCF) 的价格

104.68 ₽ -61.95%

折扣价

258.73 ₽ -5.96%

1.67/10

分析师平均价格

价格公道 = 363.41 ₽
现价 = 275.14 ₽ (不同之处 = +32.08%)

主意	价格预测	变化	结束日期	分析师
Сбербанк: наметился зеленый тренд	358.7 ₽	+83.56 ₽ (30.37%)	17.01.2026	ПСБ
Сбер: человеко- и инвестороцентричный	370 ₽	+94.86 ₽ (34.48%)	27.12.2025	БКС
Сбербанк: и по-другому никак	300 ₽	+24.86 ₽ (9.04%)	03.11.2025	ЦИФРА Брокер
Сбер: зеленый монстр	387 ₽	+111.86 ₽ (40.66%)	03.06.2025	Invest Heroes
Сбербанк: прёт как танк!	406 ₽	+130.86 ₽ (47.56%)	14.05.2025	СОЛИД
Потенциал роста в акциях Сбера сохраняется	356.5 ₽	+81.36 ₽ (29.57%)	22.03.2025	Финам
Сбер - ребятам пример	377 ₽	+101.86 ₽ (37.02%)	05.03.2025	Риком-Траст
"Префы" Сбера - главная фишка российского рынка. Апдейт 2024	350 ₽	+74.86 ₽ (27.21%)	04.03.2025	СОЛИД
Сбербанк: отчете наш	365.5 ₽	+90.36 ₽ (32.84%)	08.02.2025	РСХБ Брокер

价格基于每股收益

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
Key Rate = 关键利率
价格公道 = 188.39 ₽
现价 = 275.14 ₽ (不同之处 = -31.53%)

数据

Dividend Discount Model

Price = (DPS * (1 + g)) / (Cost Of Equity - g)
Price - 价格公道
DPS — 当期股息
g — 预期增长率
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
价格公道 = 110.69 ₽ (私人。 = 110.69)
现价 = 275.14 ₽ (不同之处 = -59.77%)
现价私人。 = 274.77 ₽ (不同之处 = -59.72%)

数据

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 EBITDA)

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Future Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
WACC - 加权平均资本成本（考虑国家风险、通货膨胀、税收等）
价格公道 = 1.9 ₽
现价 = 275.14 ₽ (不同之处 = -99.31%)

数据

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 1.13
Ebitda Yield = -1.36
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 1835.5
Debt = 8285.6
Market Cap = 6948.36
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 6948.36 / (6948.36 + 8285.6) = 0.4561
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.4561 = 0.5439
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 9.51
β = 1.4
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.51 + 1.4 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.3072
WACC = (1835.5 / 8285.6) * (100% - 0.4561) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.3072 + 0.4561 = 17.78
Terminal Value = Discount (1.13 * (1 + -1.36) / (17.78 - -1.36)) = -0.1174
Company Value = ∑ (1.13 / (1 + 17.78) ^ 5) = 43.03
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-0.1174 + 43.03) / 22587000000 = 1.9

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 FCF)

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield) ^ 5
Company Value = ∑ (FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
WACC - 加权平均资本成本（考虑国家风险、通货膨胀、税收等）
价格公道 = 104.68 ₽
现价 = 275.14 ₽ (不同之处 = -61.95%)

数据

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 373.99
FCF Yield = 0.0454
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 1835.5
Debt = 8285.6
Market Cap = 6948.36
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 6948.36 / (6948.36 + 8285.6) = 0.4561
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.4561 = 0.5439
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 9.51
β = 1.4
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.51 + 1.4 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.3072
WACC = (1835.5 / 8285.6) * (100% - 0.4561) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.3072 + 0.4561 = 17.78
Terminal Value = Discount (373.99 * (1 + 0.0454) / (17.78 - 0.0454)) = 1302.16
Company Value = ∑ (373.99 / (1 + 17.78) ^ 5) = 1062.27
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (1302.16 + 1062.27) / 22587000000 = 104.68

Investing Port

MOEX: SBER - Сбербанк

分析师平均价格

价格基于每股收益

Dividend Discount Model

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 EBITDA)

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 FCF)

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