Сбербанк (SBER) 📈: справедливая цена акции по DCF, DDM и прогнозы аналитиков по акции Сбербанк

现价

309.9 ₽

平均价格

134.17 ₽ -56.71%

分析师平均价格

364.46 ₽ +17.6%

价格基于每股收益

202.78 ₽ -34.57%

1.67/10

分析师平均价格

价格公道 = 364.46 ₽
现价 = 309.9 ₽ (不同之处 = +17.6%)

主意	价格预测	变化	结束日期	分析师
Сбер: Греф не взять в лонг	339.5 ₽	+29.6 ₽ (9.55%)	11.04.2025	Финам - спекулятивный портфель
Сбер: другим на бирже в пример	390 ₽	+80.1 ₽ (25.85%)	17.02.2026	Атон
Сбербанк: наметился зеленый тренд	358.7 ₽	+48.8 ₽ (15.75%)	17.01.2026	ПСБ
Сбер: человеко- и инвестороцентричный	370 ₽	+60.1 ₽ (19.39%)	27.12.2025	БКС
Сбербанк: и по-другому никак	300 ₽	-9.9 ₽ (-3.19%)	03.11.2025	ЦИФРА Брокер
Сбер: зеленый монстр	387 ₽	+77.1 ₽ (24.88%)	03.06.2025	Invest Heroes
Сбербанк: прёт как танк!	406 ₽	+96.1 ₽ (31.01%)	14.05.2025	СОЛИД
	364.46	17.61

价格基于每股收益

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
Key Rate = 关键利率
价格公道 = 202.78 ₽
现价 = 309.9 ₽ (不同之处 = -34.57%)

数据

Dividend Discount Model

Price = (DPS * (1 + g)) / (Cost Of Equity - g)
Price - 价格公道
DPS — 当期股息
g — 预期增长率
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
价格公道 = 103.62 ₽ (私人。 = 103.62)
现价 = 309.9 ₽ (不同之处 = -66.56%)
现价私人。 = 308.19 ₽ (不同之处 = -66.38%)

数据

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 EBITDA)

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Future Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
WACC - 加权平均资本成本（考虑国家风险、通货膨胀、税收等）
价格公道 = 1.63 ₽
现价 = 309.9 ₽ (不同之处 = -99.47%)

数据

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 1.13
Ebitda Yield = -1.36
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 4504.7
Debt = 8285.6
Market Cap = 6948.36
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 6948.36 / (6948.36 + 8285.6) = 0.4561
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.4561 = 0.5439
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 10.06
β = 1.65
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 10.06 + 1.65 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.3278
WACC = (4504.7 / 8285.6) * (100% - 0.4561) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.3278 + 0.4561 = 43.45
Terminal Value = Discount (1.13 * (1 + -1.36) / (43.45 - -1.36)) = -0.0376
Company Value = ∑ (1.13 / (1 + 43.45) ^ 5) = 36.82
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-0.0376 + 36.82) / 22587000000 = 1.63

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 FCF)

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield) ^ 5
Company Value = ∑ (FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
WACC - 加权平均资本成本（考虑国家风险、通货膨胀、税收等）
价格公道 = 35.64 ₽
现价 = 309.9 ₽ (不同之处 = -88.5%)

数据

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 373.99
FCF Yield = 0.0454
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 4504.7
Debt = 8285.6
Market Cap = 6948.36
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 6948.36 / (6948.36 + 8285.6) = 0.4561
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.4561 = 0.5439
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 10.06
β = 1.65
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 10.06 + 1.65 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.3278
WACC = (4504.7 / 8285.6) * (100% - 0.4561) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.3278 + 0.4561 = 43.45
Terminal Value = Discount (373.99 * (1 + 0.0454) / (43.45 - 0.0454)) = 165.44
Company Value = ∑ (373.99 / (1 + 43.45) ^ 5) = 639.47
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (165.44 + 639.47) / 22587000000 = 35.64

Investing Port

MOEX: SBER - Сбербанк

分析师平均价格

价格基于每股收益

Dividend Discount Model

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 EBITDA)

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 FCF)

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