Транснефть (TRNF) 📈: справедливая цена акции по DCF, DDM и прогнозы аналитиков по акции Транснефть

现价

1618 ₽

平均价格

1327.13 ₽ -17.98%

分析师平均价格

1728.4 ₽ +6.82%

价格基于每股收益

1371.41 ₽ -15.24%

价格根据DDM型号

1100.84 ₽ -31.96%

折扣价

1107.88 ₽ -31.53%

2.5/10

分析师平均价格

价格公道 = 1 728.4 ₽
现价 = 1 618 ₽ (不同之处 = +6.82%)

主意	价格预测	变化	结束日期	分析师
Транснефть: когда индексация на твоей стороне	1720 ₽	+102 ₽ (6.3%)	21.01.2026	Синара Инвестбанк
Транснефть: доходы проиндексированы	1400 ₽	-218 ₽ (-13.47%)	27.12.2025	БКС
Транснефть: транспортируем акции наверх	1594.9 ₽	-23.1 ₽ (-1.43%)	05.11.2025	Финам - спекулятивный портфель
Транснефть: деньги не в трубу, а из трубы	1879.9 ₽	+261.9 ₽ (16.19%)	31.10.2025	Финам
Транснефть: труба зовет!	1630 ₽	+12 ₽ (0.7417%)	17.04.2025	Альфа Инвестиции
Транснефть: темное, разливное	2000 ₽	+382 ₽ (23.61%)	31.05.2025	SberCIB
Транснефть индексирует счета инвесторов	1874 ₽	+256 ₽ (15.82%)	20.03.2025	ПСБ

价格基于每股收益

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
Key Rate = 关键利率
价格公道 = 1 371.41 ₽
现价 = 1 618 ₽ (不同之处 = -15.24%)

数据

Dividend Discount Model

Price = (DPS * (1 + g)) / (Cost Of Equity - g)
Price - 价格公道
DPS — 当期股息
g — 预期增长率
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
价格公道 = 1 100.84 ₽ (私人。 = 1 170.51)
现价 = 1 618 ₽ (不同之处 = -31.96%)
现价私人。 = 1 149.2 ₽ (不同之处 = +1.85%)

数据

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 EBITDA)

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Future Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
WACC - 加权平均资本成本（考虑国家风险、通货膨胀、税收等）
价格公道 = 22 962.47 ₽
现价 = 1 618 ₽ (不同之处 = +1 319.19%)

数据

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 672.23
Ebitda Yield = 0.0399
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 31.7
Debt = 346.2
Market Cap = 1073
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 1073 / (1073 + 346.2) = 0.7561
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.7561 = 0.2439
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 9.92
β = 0
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.92 + 0 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2286
WACC = (31.7 / 346.2) * (100% - 0.7561) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2286 + 0.7561 = 7.44
Terminal Value = Discount (672.23 * (1 + 0.0399) / (7.44 - 0.0399)) = 14139.14
Company Value = ∑ (672.23 / (1 + 7.44) ^ 5) = 2508.66
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (14139.14 + 2508.66) / 725000000 = 22962.47

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 FCF)

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield) ^ 5
Company Value = ∑ (FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
WACC - 加权平均资本成本（考虑国家风险、通货膨胀、税收等）
价格公道 = 7 464.37 ₽
现价 = 1 618 ₽ (不同之处 = +361.33%)

数据

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 532.48
FCF Yield = 0.1884
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 31.7
Debt = 346.2
Market Cap = 1073
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 1073 / (1073 + 346.2) = 0.7561
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.7561 = 0.2439
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 9.92
β = 0
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.92 + 0 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2286
WACC = (31.7 / 346.2) * (100% - 0.7561) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2286 + 0.7561 = 7.44
Terminal Value = Discount (532.48 * (1 + 0.1884) / (7.44 - 0.1884)) = 3876.36
Company Value = ∑ (532.48 / (1 + 7.44) ^ 5) = 1535.31
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (3876.36 + 1535.31) / 725000000 = 7464.37

Investing Port

MOEX: TRNF - Транснефть

分析师平均价格

价格基于每股收益

Dividend Discount Model

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 EBITDA)

Discounted Cash Flow (基于 FCF)

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