MOEX: SIBN - Газпромнефть

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — 关键利率
Excess Key Rate — 期望超出关键利率
EPS = 105.62
CAGR EPS = 76.36%
Key Rate = 0.21
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 105.62 * (1 + 76.36%) / (0.21 * 2) = 443.5

Price = (DPS * (1 + g)) / (Cost Of Equity - g)
Price - 价格公道
DPS — 当期股息
g — 预期增长率
DPS = 71.45
g = 0.4592
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 10.06
β = 0.4942
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 10.06 + 0.4942 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2592
Price = (71.45 * (1 + 0.4592)) / (0.2592 - 0.4592) = 521.42

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 3862.03
Ebitda Yield = 0.2258
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 70.97
Debt = 960.31
Market Cap = 3304.92
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 3304.92 / (3304.92 + 960.31) = 0.7749
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.7749 = 0.2251
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 10.06
β = 0.4942
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 10.06 + 0.4942 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2592
WACC = (70.97 / 960.31) * (100% - 0.7749) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2592 + 0.7749 = 6.07
Terminal Value = Discount (3862.03 * (1 + 0.2258) / (6.07 - 0.2258)) = 21357.24
Company Value = ∑ (3862.03 / (1 + 6.07) ^ 5) = 10996.74
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (21357.24 + 10996.74) / 4741000000 = 6824.3

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - 价格公道
Terminal Value — 预测后期间的成本
Company Value — 预测期内的成本
Count shares - 股份数量
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 1062.67
FCF Yield = 0.2727
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - 偿债成本
Debt - 责任
Weight Debt - 相对于债务的资本权重
Weight Cost Debt - 债务权重相对于资本总额
Tax - 税
Interest Expense = 70.97
Debt = 960.31
Market Cap = 3304.92
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 3304.92 / (3304.92 + 960.31) = 0.7749
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.7749 = 0.2251
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — 贴现率
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — 无风险回报率
β (beta) — 确定股票（资产）相对于市场的风险度量，并显示股票盈利能力变化相对于市场盈利能力变化的敏感性。
Risk Premium — 风险溢价——投资股票的风险溢价
Country Premium - 国家风险
k(f) = 10.06
β = 0.4942
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 10.06 + 0.4942 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2592
WACC = (70.97 / 960.31) * (100% - 0.7749) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2592 + 0.7749 = 6.07
Terminal Value = Discount (1062.67 * (1 + 0.2727) / (6.07 - 0.2727)) = 4751.99
Company Value = ∑ (1062.67 / (1 + 6.07) ^ 5) = 2841.26
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (4751.99 + 2841.26) / 4741000000 = 1601.61